Jacob Rosen's Tumblr

An Overdue Explanation

Mon, 20 Jun 2011 14:30:36 -0400

(Post written Monday, June 20, 1:31 p.m. at Bucharest Airport. I’m now safely in Madrid and I’ll meet with my school group tomorrow.)

To all my loyal followers, I apologize for the lack on Tumblr updates over the past month. I promised to keep a running blog of my overseas travels this summer at this site, but haven’t followed through. So this post is a brief summary of what has occurred already and what to expect until I return home July 27.

The reason for my Tumblr nonexistence is the internet firewall settings at Livnot U’Lehibanot, my community service program in Tzfat, Israel. Livnot purchased its internet security through an Israeli company, which just happened to specifically block open-source websites such as Tumblr and Flickr. So outside of Livnot I was able to access Tumblr, but I felt it would be unfair to write unless I could reflect on all of my experiences at the end.

Thus I was able to access Gmail, Facebook, ESPN and my other essential sites at Livnot, but was unable to deliver upon my Tumblr promise. I’ll do my best to be more consistent over the coming five weeks plus, so I’ll start with how I ended up frustrated as all hell in Bucharest, Romania.

My program in Tzfat ended Saturday evening, June 18, so four other group participants and I departed early Sunday morning, June 19, for a final day in Tel Aviv. I purposefully did not get any sleep during this final Livnot night, as I was doing all of my laundry on top forging final memories with all my unforgettable friends. In the end, we barely made our 8:15 a.m. bus and then slept for most of the journey until our 11:45 a.m. arrival.

We enjoyed our last adventure by perusing Tel Aviv’s open air market – called shook in Hebrew. The area was a smorgasbord of Israel’s hands-on business style and extensive offerings. From hookahs to sunglasses to small gifts to produce and more, this place had it all. In fact, one of my close friends Robyn even ended up haphazardly spending 250 shekels – about $71.4 in the states – on spices alone.

After enjoying some cheap falafel, purchasing gifts and more, we headed back to the hostel where we stored our bags for the day. One participant then departed, so the remaining four of us spent the rest of the afternoon napping at the incredibly touristy Jerusalem beach.

We capped off the relaxing day with an awesome dinner about a 15-minute walk away from the hostel. We shared a hummus plate and two jugs of lemonade while each enjoying individual entrees for a total of just 175 shekels – about $50 in the states – combined including tip. Our choice restaurant was so nice and cozy, they even added in complimentary coffee/tea and then a shot at the end of our meal.

One more friend left after dinner and one was staying at the hostel, so Robyn and I grabbed a sherut – a shared taxi cab – to the central bus station for our journey over to Rehovot, an emerging suburb with a large mall. There she would meet her aunt and uncle and I would eventually continue my journey to Kiryat Ekron, where I was going to stay with old family friends for the night. Nerves and anxiety eventually turned into my walking off the bus and to their house around 11:15 p.m.

Following a much-needed shower and a few hours of sleep, the friends helped to provide for a taxi to take me to the Ben Gurion airport at 7:10 a.m. Monday. Everything was smooth sailing from there and after clearing security I re-focused on buying a gift for my Spain host family, something my parents reminded me about via email just after I left the shook the day before. I bought a solid 59 shekel - $17 American – bottle of wine at duty free as planned and coasted through my connecting flight to Bucharest, Romania.

My good fortune and hiccup-free travelling then handled its first blow upon my arrival. I followed the signs for the connecting flights from my airplane, and joined three other travelers in waiting for permission to pass through security. We waited for about 15 minutes until the boss arrived, and after going through the metal detectors and a check-up call to the security boss, I was told I had to pitch my recent wine purchase.

Since the large liquid container originated in a non-European Union location, I was explained it was simply the rule to throw everything away. I never saw any such warning when I purchased the wine at Ben Gurion, but reading through the security counter rules during the brief wait alerted initial suspicions. I also had to finish my final few ounces of water in my bottle and stomped away with frustration, angst and regret.

So this is how I begin my travels in Europe for the next 37 days. Romania, a recent addition to the EU that unfortunately still maintains its funky currency, is serving as a very odd host on my way to the Madrid airport this afternoon.

I’ll be arriving around 6 p.m. Monday and I’ll stay the night at an airport hotel before meeting up with my UD group at 12 p.m. Tuesday, June 21. From there, I’m spending four weeks in Segovia, Spain, and then concluding my travels with 10 days of adventuring from Paris, France, to The Hague, Netherlands and finally to Brussels, Belgium.

Hopefully this post sparks the start of my delayed promise fulfillment as I begin the second half of my epic summer journey. I can’t wait to hear from all of you soon and as they say in Spanish, hasta luego.

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 101-120

Sun, 22 May 2011 06:00:05 -0400

Introduction, #’s 1-20, #’s 21-40, #’s 41-60, #’s 61-80 and #’s 81-100

Day #101: 4/19 - Peter Bjorn and John, “Young Folks”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIRE6iw-ws4

Day #102: 4/20 - The Fray, “How To Save A Life” shout out Erica D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjVQ36NhbMk

Day #103: 4/21 - Yael Naim, “New Soul” shout out Toby R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtslwxL_Leg

Day #104: 4/22 - Blind Pilot, “Go On Say It”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-usPwbzwIEk

Day #105: 4/23 - Devo, “Whip It”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIEVqFB4WUo

Day #106: 4/24 - Jesus Jones, “Right Here Right Now”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7z6dxQVhE8o

Day #107: 4/25 - Simon and Garfunkel, “America” shout out Joelle B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCbOEZ8c8dM

Day #108: 4/26 - Interpol, “C’Mere”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaDw4CAcXVE

Day #109: 4/27 - O.A.R., “Love And Memories” shout out Kelly N
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpea4Nlzs1U

Day #110: 4/28 - Sugar Ray, “Fly”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUtnwcv-quE

Day #111: 4/29 - Mac Miller, “Donald Trump” via Kevin T
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74TFS8r_SMI

Day #112: 4/30 - Alpha Rev, “New Morning”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O75LJUc7nBY

Day #113: 5/1 - Explosions in the Sky, “Your Hand In Mine” via Shayn R, Matthew G
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLlYQQrHmh8

Day #114: 5/2 - Ben Harper & The Innocent Criminals, “Glory & Consequence” via Matthew N
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KztTFWkElbI

Day #115: 5/3 - Blackstreet, “No Diggity” shout out Adam Ro.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KL9mRus19o

Day #116: 5/4 - Johnny Cash, “Hurt”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmVAWKfJ4Go

Day #117: 5/5 - She & Him, “Why Do You Let Me Stay Here?” via Shayn R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17KUOQOlt8E

Day #118: 5/6 - Diddy, “Coming Home” via Dan F
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-ImCpNqbJw

Day #119: 5/7 - The Pixies, “Where Is My Mind?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGXdXcpNsv4

Day #120: 5/8 - The Verve, “Bittersweet Symphony”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx3m4e45bTo

Arrival in Israel

Sat, 21 May 2011 16:51:41 -0400

I’m here safely now in Kiryat Ekron, Israel. This is my temporary home for the day as I will be journeying by bus over to Tzfat in the morning tomorrow.

I left my home in Akron around 8:30 a.m. EST Friday and then arrived at this house around 12:30 p.m. Israel time. The time difference is seven hours ahead, so that was a total of 21 hours of traveling to make it here today.

Tomorrow’s Lag Ba’omer which means a giant celebration throughout the country. I’ll post some more pictures of my travels through Newark and Ben-Gurion airports tomorrow hopefully when I can get an Israeli outlet converter for my laptop. Until then!

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 81-100

Wed, 18 May 2011 13:06:05 -0400

Introduction, #’s 1-20, #’s 21-40, #’s 41-60 and #’s 61-80

Day #81: 3/30 - Barenaked Ladies, “Pinch Me”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3NE6UuaLiY

Day #82: 3/31 - Ludo, “Love Me Dead” via Jessica T
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XH3oMNKApI

Day #83: 4/1 - The White Stripes, “Fell In Love With A Girl” shoutout Nathan W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q27BfBkRHbs

Day #84: 4/2 - Snow Patrol, “Just Say Yes” shoutout Joelle B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW1hv37imjw

Day #85: 4/3 - Fatboy Slim, “Weapon of Choice”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AqFBSf4xS4

Day #86: 4/4 - Feist, “1234”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABYnqp-bxvg

Day #87: 4/5 - Bishop Allen, “Click, Click, Click, Click” shoutout Ethan K
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LpmrZbTu1o

Day #88: 4/6 - Gomez, “How We Operate”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5voqGVDPg4

Day #89: 4/7 - Pete Yorn, “Crystal Village” via Chris R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEy3xJvozq8

Day #90: 4/8 - Sister Hazel, “All For You” shoutout Lowes Street
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f46ulX6uwGc

Day #91: 4/9 - Gnarls Barkley, “Crazy”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd2B6SjMh_w

Day #92: 4/10 - Jack’s Mannequin, “Caves” shout out Jacqui B, Anna B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_WaGh0NqcU

Day #93: 4/11 - Fleet Foxes, “White Winter Hymnal” via Michael W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrQRS40OKNE

Day #94: 4/12 - Counting Crows, “Mr Jones” via Chloe W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYN74ZW4k_E

Day #95: 4/13 - Chumbawumba, “Tubthumping”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H5uWRjFsGc

Day #96: 4/14 - Fleetwood Mac, “Landslide”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM7-PYtXtJM

Day #97: 4/15 - Reel Big Fish, “Sell Out” shout out A Rey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEKbFMvkLIc

Day #98: 4/16 - Billy Joel, “We Didn’t Start the Fire” via Kim D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFTLKWw542g

Day #99: 4/17 - Grizzly Bear, “Two Weeks”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjecYugTbIQ

Day #100: 4/18 - Phoenix, “1901” via Anna B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL548cHH3OY

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 61-80

Wed, 18 May 2011 10:01:06 -0400

Introduction, #’s 1-20, #’s 21-40 and #’s 41-60

Day #61: 3/10 - The Raconteurs, “Steady As She Goes”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvabLhs6_LM

Day #62: 3/11 - Incubus, “Dig” via Nathan W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMsZ6wkZWhA

Day #63: 3/12 - Presidents of the United States of America, “Peaches” via Matthew G
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvcohzJvviQ

Day #64: 3/13 - Albert Hammond Jr., “101” via Bob Bee M
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvyXS9OTqUE

Day #65: 3/14 - The Divinyls, “I Touch Myself” via Paul A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv-34w8kGPM

Day #66: 3/15 - New Radicals, “You Get What You Give”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DL7-CKirWZE

Day #67: 3/16 - K-Ci & Jo-Jo, “All My Life” via Matthew G & Matthew N
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXvMT_mVbqw

Day #68: 3/17 - Franz Ferdinand, “Take Me Out”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ijk4j-r7qPA

Day #69: 3/18 - The Cure, “Friday I’m In Love”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wa2nLEhUcZ0

Day #70: 3/19 - Matchbow Twenty, “Unwell”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WziA88-n02k

Day #71: 3/20 - Softlightes, “Heart Made of Sound” via Shayn R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suNVb3kQaUM

Day #72: 3/21 - Brandon Flowers, “Crossfire”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AhU12zC8fc

Day #73: 3/22 - Duck Sauce, “Barbara Streissand”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_zwdmz0hE

Day #74: 3/23 - Local Natives, “Airplanes”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pZkZguPAPs

Day #75: 3/24 - The Black Keys, “10 A.M. Automatic” shoutout Patrick C
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqVxMSkV9hM

Day #76: 3/25 - Rusted Root, “Send Me On My Way” via Emily W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGMabBGydC0

Day #77: 3/26 - Kanye West, “Good Morning” shoutout Marcy G, Shammas M
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CHs4x2uqcQ

Day #78: 3/27 - Something Corporate, “If You C Jordan” via Anna B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPPX6dZT0Vw

Day #79: 3/28 - Jet, “Are You Gonna Be My Girl?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuK6n2Lkza0

Day#80: 3/29 - Matisyahu, “One Day”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRmBChQjZPs

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 41-60

Tue, 17 May 2011 17:24:28 -0400

Introduction, #’s 1-20 and #’s 21-40

Day #41: 2/18 - Alphaville, “Forever Young” via Sarah S
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1TcDHrkQYg

Day #42: 2/19 - The Shins, “Know Your Onion”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4Y5Ma8DrUI

Day #43: 2/20 - Gorillaz, “Clint Eastwood”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoQYw49saqc

Day #44: 2/21 - Elliott Smith, “Waltz #2 (XO)”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2sfwky4RqQ

Day #45: 2/22 - Semisonic, “Closing Time”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGytDsqkQY8

Day #46: 2/23 - Bright Eyes, “First Day of My Life” via Carol H
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwFS69nA-1w

Day #47: 2/24 - Modest Mouse, “Dashboard”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=penvn9VL32Y

Day #48: 2/25 - Spoon, “The Underdog”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1hZVDLkJDc

Day #49: 2/26 - We Are Scientists, “After Hours” shoutout Matthew G
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XXfqPRG4TQ

Day #50: 2/27 - Oasis, “Morning Glory”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gr7MSSPNH9o

Day #51: 2/28 - Wakey!Wakey!, “Light Outside” via Anthony L
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okAQ-aRTBAY

Day #52: 3/1 - Passion Pit, “Moth’s Wings”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9o8SlyPB84

Day #53: 3/2 - Blakroc, “Ain’t Nothing Like You (Hoochie Coo)”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vtWNDI_EOI

Day #54: 3/3 - Wilco, “Outtasite (Outta Mind)”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcaGlJGijj0

Day #55: 3/4 - Dexy’s Midnight Runners, “Come On Eileen” via Joelle B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc-P8oDuS0Q

Day #56: 3/5 - Rooney, “When Did Your Heat Go Missing?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZLkw9io9C0

Day #57: 3/6 - The Alternate Routes, “Time Is A Runaway” via Yotam L
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2iSzD0IeMs

Day #58: 3/7 - A Tribe Called Quest, “Situations”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFZLq6R-ZtM

Day #59: 3/8 - Sum 41, “Fat Lip”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMX2lPum_pg

Day #60: 3/9 - Laurent Wolf, “No Stress” shoutout Sam R, Isaac K
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HMKImKWLfA

Why I hate the NBA Draft Lottery

Tue, 17 May 2011 15:04:00 -0400

Tonight marks the NBA Draft Lottery and basketball fans everywhere are clamoring for their favorite bad team to get the top spot in June’s draft. The lottery is a spectacle in of itself, but it is a unique event that gives competitive balance a whole new spin.

Doing some research at www.nba.com, we can track how this current system came into place. Read up on that below, but the sheer fact of the matter is that only three times in the current weight lottery system has the actual worst team in the NBA received the top pick in the draft.

The NBA is a top-heavy league. Stars dominate the league unlike baseball, football, soccer or hockey because there are only five players on the court at each time for each team. While an Albert Pujols or Peyton Manning can change the game in other sports, their sole impact is nothing compared to a Michael Jordan or Shaquille O’Neal.

The current system is a mesh of ping pong balls, scattered probabilities and a fool’s gold representation of fairness in professional sports. The reason the NBA gave for switching to the lottery system was because teams supposedly tanked at the end of the season for better draft position.

Hello, NFL, MLB, NHL and every other major sport? It happens, folks, so get used to it. The fact of the matter is that the NBA is more star-heavy than any other league. Thus, a team such as Chicago jumping out of nowhere with 1.5 percent odds at getting Derrick Rose in 2008 can change the entire competitive swing of the league for decades.

History

It all began with the original form of the NBA Draft in 1966 where the two division last-place finishers flipped a coin for the first pick. The rest of the teams picked in inverse order by record and this worked all fine and dandy with an essentially unlimited number of rounds through 1984.

For the next two seasons, all seven non-playoff teams had an equal shot at the top pick. In this random drawing envelope system, the NBA was highly criticized for the New York Knicks getting 1985’s top pick and selecting Patrick Ewing. The league changed it around slightly before the 1987 draft, as the lottery then only determined the order of selection for the first three teams. Thus, the worst team could pick no worse than fourth and continuing on down.

Due to much criticism yet again, the NBA’s Board of Governors moved to a weighted system similar to the one that exists today for the 1990 draft. With 11 teams now, the team with the worst record received 11 chances of out 66 for the top pick, the second worst team received 10 chances, etc.

A final procedural change occurred prior to the 1994 NBA Draft when the league increased the odds for the worst team from 16.7 to 25 percent, and decreased the odds for the best non-playoff team from 1.5 to 0.5 percent. Adding in the new expansion teams in Toronto, Vancouver and Charlotte over the years, and there you have the NBA Lottery as it stands today.

Conclusion

So deep down, I’m a Cleveland fan and tonight I’ll be cheering for the Cavs to make the most of out those silly ping pong balls. But in the end, I know that this weight lottery system is a farce to competition and represents the NBA in an unrealistic fashion that favors luck over need for the worst teams in the league.

Just as an example, only three times in the 21 years of this current process has the actual worst team ended up with the top pick in the draft. That happened in 1990 with New Jersey, 2003 with Cleveland (tied for the worst record) and 2004 with Orlando (a team that has won the lottery a record three times).

I honestly hope the NBA considers going back to a traditional reverse order draft by record sometime down the road. It will eliminate all rumors of suspicious behavior, actually help build up perennially awful teams like Charlotte, Minnesota, etc, and improve upon the league’s competitive balance for decades to come.

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 21-40

Fri, 13 May 2011 16:10:00 -0400

Introduction and #’s 1-20

Day #21: 1/29 - Mat Weddle, “Hey Ya”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-8nkkOA_AM

Day #22: 1/30 - Ted Leo and the Pharmacists, “Bottled in Cork”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w248uwpAX14

Day #23: 1/31 - Goo Goo Dolls, “Iris” shoutout Chris R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdYWuo9OFAw

Day#24: 2/1 - Of Montreal, “Wraith Pinned to the Mist and Other Games”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PoJv4N1Too

Day #25: 2/2 - Arctic Monkeys, ”Fluorescent Adolescent” via Emma D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64QMKEbJQg

Day #26: 2/3 - Hootie and the Blowfish, “Only Wanna Be With You”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln6WQqRDrCo

Day #27: 2/4 - Death Cab for Cutie, “The Sound of Settling” shoutout roommates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-EoFKAl6w

Day #28: 2/5 - Broken Bells, “The High Road”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWBG1j_flrg

Day #29: 2/6 - MGMT, “Kids”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fe4EK4HSPkI

Day #30: 2/7 - Ben Folds and WASO, “Fred Jones Part 2”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnU3zuqncwo

Day #31: 2/8 - Cake, “The Distance”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__PU5CVSegg

Day #32: 2/9 - Belle & Sebastian, “I Want The World To Stop”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snailu0RnLg

Day #33: 2/10 - Smashing Pumpkins, “Tonight, Tonight”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEvVIgCm1zg

Day #34: 2/11 - The Decemberists, “Sixteen Military Wives”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK3Ce9md96g

Day #35: 2/12 - Vampire Weekend, “Giving Up The Gun”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bccKotFwzoY

Day #36: 2/13 - The New Pornographers, “Moves”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYyu5vbwvbA

Day #37: 2/14 - Joseph Arthur, “In The Sun”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QotZ7TIaztw

Day #38: 2/15 - Beirut, “Nantes” via Shayn R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq2s0AhdFE4

Day #39: 2/16 - A-Ha, “Take On Me”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djV11Xbc914

Day #40: 2/17 - Coldplay, “Life In Technicolor ii” via Marcy G
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXSovfzyx28

Columbus Clippers Thesis Visit Recap

Fri, 13 May 2011 13:05:00 -0400

Heading into my senior year, I’m beginning my research for my University of Dayton honors thesis. This project covers the success and profitability of minor league baseball franchises, and around my overseas travels, my plans are to visit 10 organizations for in-person interviews with their front offices.

My journeys began with a short drive down south to Columbus, Ohio. The Clippers were extremely gracious hosts - led by media relations/historian stalwart Joe Santry - and I was able to sit down with several members of the front office during the afternoon.

Some interesting tidbits from my visit to Columbus were to consider the impact of early season home scheduling on attendance. In 2009, when the Clippers first began playing at their sparkling new Huntington Park downtown in the Arena District, the team only had nine of its first 28 games at home. The squad averaged nearly 9,000 fans for those games including four sellouts en route to leading MiLB with an average of 9,526 fans per game in ‘09.

Then last season, the Clippers’ attendance dropped by more than six percent. What was the reason for this sudden change? Ken Schnacke, president and general manager, and Mark Galuska, director of marketing and sales, both pointed to the International League’s April scheduling.

Columbus played at home for 18 of its first 27 games in 2010, and was averaging just 7,128 fans when that streak ended on May 4. So even though the team averaged more than 9,500 the rest of the way, the damage was already done.

So I’ll be keeping an eye out for that on the rest of my visits. Enjoy the pictures folks and I definitely recommend you to check out this modern baseball mecca for the minor league fan.

What is the floor for the 2011 Indians?

Fri, 13 May 2011 11:00:00 -0400

I’ve already served as the bad cop on this team, and now I’m switching roles just a little bit. The first-quarter mark of the 2011 MLB season is approaching, and that means it is a fun analysis point for fans of the Cleveland Indians.

The Tribe currently has a 23-13 record, still best in the American League despite back-to-back losses this week to the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays. So if you are one of those typical Northeast Ohio sports pessimists, what can you expect as the floor for the rest of the season?

In order to answer that question, I looked at cherry-picked samples over the past 10 years. I tried to find teams that specifically got off to hot starts similarly to the Indians, marked them at their peak and then plotted their descent.

The results prove that it’s a near guarantee the Indians will win at least 75 games this season, no matter what. More likely than not however, this is a team that will finish somewhere in the 81-87 range by the end of the year.

Sample Averages: these 13 teams on average started the season 24.6-14.0 (.637 win pct) with a .580 Pythagorean winning percentage. Then the teams went on a terrible 52.3-71.0 (.424 win pct) average stretch to finish the season with a 76.9-85.0 (.475) record.

So even if the worst of worst samples over the last decade, teams on average were in similar situations to these current Indians and then fell back more than 18 games, but still ended up with about 77 wins.

These numbers were a result of a WaitingForNextYear.com email conversation where we debated how the Indians will end up this season. It’s mostly guess work at this point in evaluating true talent against the small sample size run expectations, but the Indians are in a better situation than most of these 13 extreme outliers.

The Pythagorean winning percentage, often used as a measure of true success from run expectations, is fairly unfriendly to large tails in the standard bell curve. That’s why all but one of these samples have lower PYTH averages than actual winning percentages.

The Indians at the moment do as well (.613 PYTH to .639), but their Pythagorean expectation is significantly above the sample average here and much closer to the team’s actual winning percentage. So the Indians are already above the curve there and because of this hot start, it will be difficult to fall too far down.

Here are the 13 sample teams from the past decade:

2010 Washington Nationals: began with a 20-15 (.571) record PYTH (.477) and then went on a 49-78 (.386) stretch to finish 69-93 (.426)

2009 Cincinnati Reds: began with a 26-20 (.565) record PYTH (.531) and then went on a 52-64 (.448) stretch to finish 78-84 (.481)

2009 Kansas City Royals: began with an 18-11 (.621) record PYTH (.615) and then went on a 47-86 (.353) stretch to finish 65-97 (.401)

2009 Toronto Blue Jays: began with a 27-14 (.659) record PYTH (.632) and then went on a 48-73 (.397) stretch to finish 75-87 (.463)

2008 Oakland Athletics: began with a 22-14 (.611) record PYTH (.626) and then went on a 53-72 (.424) stretch to finish 75-86 (.466)

2007 Milwaukee Brewers: began with a 24-10 (.706) record PYTH (.611) and then went on a 59-69 (.461) stretch to finish 83-79 (.512)

2007 Chicago White Sox: began with a 23-19 (.548) record PYTH (.480) and then went on a 49-71 (.408) stretch to finish 72-90 (.444)

2006 Cincinnati Reds: began with 19-8 (.704) record PYTH (.575) and then went on a 61-74 (.452) stretch to finish 80-82 (.494)

2005 Baltimore Orioles: began with 30-16 (.652) record PYTH (.593) and then went on a 44-72 (.379) stretch to finish 74-88 (.457)

2003 Montreal Expos: began with 32-18 (.640) record PYTH (.608) and then went on a 51-61 (.455) stretch to finish 83-79 (.512)

2003 Kansas City Royals: began with 17-4 (.810) record PYTH (.679) and then went on a 66-75 (.468) stretch to finish 83-79 (.512)

2002 Cincinnati Reds: began with 25-15 (.625) record PYTH (.579) and then went on a 53-69 (.434) stretch to finish 78-84 (.481)

2001 Minnesota Twins: began with 37-18 (.673) record PYTH (.582) and then went on a 48-59 (.449) stretch to finish 85-77 (.525)

While enjoying the Columbus Clippers game on Tuesday, May 10, I...

Fri, 13 May 2011 08:05:06 -0400

While enjoying the Columbus Clippers game on Tuesday, May 10, I had to record this gem. Not as violent as the creamstick race back with my hometown Akron Aeros, but this was still pretty impressive.

365-Day Music Video Project: #'s 1-20

Thu, 12 May 2011 17:45:00 -0400

Introduction

Day #1: 1/9 - Mumford and Sons, “Little Lion Man”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLJf9qJHR3E

Day #2: 1/10 - Arcade Fire, “Sprawl II”
http://www.hulu.com/watch/193086/saturday-night-live-arcade-fire-sprawl-ii#s-p12-sr-i1

Day #3: 1/11 - The Apples in Stereo, “Signal in the Sky”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K09givYhn1c

Day #4: 1/12 - Tired Pony, “Dead American Writers”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxaGJNihf28

Day #5: 1/13 - Architecture in Helsinki, “Do The Whirlwind”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXIzyquw-kc

Day #6: 1/14 - Sea Wolf, “Wicked Blood”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngJLJpKVn-Q

Day #7: 1/15 - Blues Traveler, “Run-Around”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjYGpTkoRVw

Day #8: 1/16 - Guster, “One Man Wrecking Machine”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxyw3Ew5LGw

Day #9: 1/17 - Beck, “Think I’m in Love” via Emma D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7WdKAvZ2ec

Day #10: 1/18 - Joshua Radin, “Closer”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wcZJWCK1Kc

Day #11: 1/19 - Ben Kweller, “Penny on the Train Tracks” via Shayn R
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LNv_wh8TwY

Day #12: 1/20 - Wolf Parade, “I’ll Believe in Anything” via Michael W
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G1eLTV89dM

Day #13: 1/21 - Modern English, “I Melt With You”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuN6gs0AJls

Day #14: 1/22 - OutKast, “B.O.B.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVyVIsvQoaE

Day #15: 1/23 - The Postal Service, “We Will Become Silhouettes”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEILFf2XSrM

Day #16: 1/24 - The Strokes, “Someday”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knU9gRUWCno

Day #17: 1/25 - VHS or Beta, “Can’t Believe A Single Word”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6vJJh8F3Wg

Day #18: 1/26 - Daft Punk, “Around the World”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9MszVE7aR4

Day #19: 1/27 - Everclear, “Everything to Everyone” shoutout Rob S
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1vQJFF2TKQ

Day #20: 1/28 - Ian Axel, “This Is The New Year” via Rosie E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHw2VbFn0fM

365-Day Music Video Project: Introduction

Thu, 12 May 2011 14:01:06 -0400

As promised readers, I’m now transitioning my Facebook account’s 365-Day Music Video Project over here to this new tumblr blog. I’ll likely be solely updating this account during my overseas travels this summer, so this will hopefully soon be the long-term home for my daily music videos.

This originally was an idea that I created back in January. The concept is relatively simple: Spend a few moments every day finding a new music video. But of course, I had to set aside a few ground rules:

Rules:
1. One music video must be posted each day for 365 days.
2. No repeat bands/artists/performers. (Example: I will not post two videos by The Black Keys. But it’s OK to post one by them and one by Blakroc).
3. Give credit where credit is due. A “via” means the person directly showed me that link, and a “shout out” just is a random note when a song reminds me of someone in particular.
4. Have fun and use this as a way to relax in your daily lives!

So there have certainly been a few times when I’ve been late every now and then when things get crazy, but overall, this has been an awesome exploration thus far. I’ll post 20 videos at a time over the coming days to get everyone caught up, and always feel free to pass along suggestions at any point.

Welcome Aboard

Thu, 12 May 2011 10:00:05 -0400

Welcome all to my first ever tumblr account! Over the upcoming weeks and months, I’ll be using this platform as an avenue for all my travels, adventures, music video exploration, sports analysis and more.

For a little background, I’m a soon-to-be senior at the University of Dayton and I’ll be travelling to Israel and Spain this coming summer. At UD, I’m an applied mathematical economics major but also serve as the editor-in-chief for Flyer News, the newspaper on campus.

In the past, I used to operate my own personal sports blog before joining forces with the awesome gang at WaitingForNextYear.com in March 2009. I served as a weekend editor there for two full years before committing my journalism free time solely to Flyer News.

So coming up soon, I’ll be catching up the folks here on tumblr with my 365-day music video project I’ve been operating on Facebook. I’ll also be sharing some thoughts, pictures and reflections from my honors thesis research on minor league baseball success and profitability. Stay tuned, and thanks for joining along for this new writing experience.